Despite the economic slowdown across the world, the size of the global luxury market is estimated to be around $2 trillion. The BRICS markets, more specifically China and India rather than Brazil and Russia, have been in the spotlight for the past few years.
However, luxury marketers in China last year faced many challenges relating to luxury consumption, regulatory issues, tariff structures, currency reasons and a severe clamp-down on the gifting culture. Stores opened in a hurry by brands across categories began to shut shop.
As a consequence of the Chinese luxury pullback, the entire global luxury industry was severely affected. All brands once again are back to devising a fresh strategy for future growth.
India: Best of BRICS
A quick analysis across the BRICS nations finds that :
In Brazil, the economy is in recession. There is no clear revival visible as of now.
Russia is the worst-affected of the lot due the commodities slump and drop in currency.
China is battling a growth slowdown.
In South Africa, the economic growth has decelerated steadily over the last few years. Industry analysts see limited growth potential.
India, alone, is expected to emerge as the world’s fastest-growing major economy.
So is there an India opportunity for luxury brands ?
India’s economy is much stronger now. The indicators are all favorable. The fiscal deficit, inflation index, current account deficit and the foreign exchange reserves are all healthier and growth-driven.
The percentage annual growth rates projections in India stand best in the BRICS region at 7.5 percent in India as against 6.3 percent in China, 2.1 percent in South Africa and almost negligible in Brazil and Russia.
Global status, brand value
India has been voted as the seventh most valued nation brand.
With an increase in 32 percent in its brand value to $2.1 billion, India has moved up one position in the most-valued nation brands list. Not only that, this surge is the highest among all the Top 20 countries on the list.
The nation brand valuation is based on five-year forecasts of sales of all brands in each nation and follows a complex process.
The gross domestic product (GDP) is used as a proxy for total revenues. Among the BRICS nations, India is the only country to have witnessed an increase in its brand value with Brazil, Russia, China and South Africa seeing a dip in their respective brand valuations.
In addition, India is the second most valued among these emerging economies after China, followed by Brazil, Russia and South Africa.
Indian consumer scenario
The Indian consumer has been divided into five different classifications.
While the top most of the pyramid, or the elite class, is just 4 percent of the overall population, the absolute numbers are far too attractive for any luxury brand to ignore. These numbers are expected to grow from current 10 million to 26 million households by 2025.
In addition, by 2025, the overall average household income is expected to multiply by 1.7 times. This, in itself, is an attractive proposition for any global retail brand.
Growth of HNIs and UHNIs
According to Credit Suisse’s 2015 Global Wealth Report, India has ranked up in the list of Top 20 countries as the number of ultra-high-net-worth (UHNW) individuals rose by 100 people since mid-2014 to now stand at 2,100.
In addition, India is home to the fourth-largest population of millionaires in the Asia-Pacific region
Besides, it is estimated that India will witness a three-fold increase in HNI wealth through the decade. It is expected to touch $2.3 trillion in 2020, from $949 billion in 2010.
By 2020, the wealth of high-net-worth individuals (HNIs) in India will rise by 94 percent as opposed to China’s 74 percent, providing attractive opportunities to luxury retailers.
Delhi and Mumbai (previously Bombay) will remain as India’s richest cities in terms of millionaires’ wealth concentration.
Significance of the Indian retail sector
The contribution to GDP by retail sector revenues in India is amongst the highest in the world.
For most developed markets, retail sector revenues are 15 percent to 20 percent of the GDP, while for India it is around 25 percent.
It is estimated that by 2022, the size of the retail market will exceed $ 1.2 trillion.
Indian retail sector: Digital influence
India is a highly digitally inclined nation. Digital influence and online purchase is projected to rise exponentially.
It is estimated that by 2020, approximately 350 million consumers are likely to digitally influence as compared to 150 million now. This will account for $240 billion to $250 billion, which is between 20 percent and 25 percent of the total retail spending.
It is also estimated that by 2020, 200 to 250 million Indians will shop online, as compared just 90 million currently.
Indian retail sector: Luxury segment
According to a research report by Euromonitor, India merely contributes 1 percent to 2 percent to the global luxury trade.
However, despite this insignificant percentage, the market is growing at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of about 25 percent. The Indian luxury market is expected to cross $18.3 billion by 2016, from the current $14.7 billion.
Significant brands across various verticals that performed well in 2015 included Gucci, Christian Dior, Louis Vuitton, Canali India, LVMH India, Judith Leiber, The SPA Group, Starwood Asia Pacific Hotels & Resorts and Reliance Brands.
Increasing brand awareness and the growing purchasing power of the upper class in tier II and III cities is fueling further growth.
Service areas such as fine dining, electronics, luxury travel, luxury personal care and jewelry saw increasing revenues and are expected to grow by 30 percent to 35 percent over the next three years.
Spending on luxury cars continues to grow at 18 percent to 20 percent over the next three years. As the purchasing power of women grows in India, the luxury beauty products market is witnessing a fast-paced growth.
Interestingly, three Indian companies have entered the Top 50 luxury brands of the world.
Ranked at 31, 42 and 44, respectively, these are Titan Company Ltd., Gitanjali Gems Ltd. and PC Jeweller Ltd. PC Jeweller Ltd. is also one of the world’s 20 fastest-growing luxury goods companies.
Digital luxury in India
Given the wide reach of the digital medium and the very low entry barriers, luxury brands are beginning to expand their presence through the online space.
In the recent past, several portals have come up. Names such as RockNshop, Luxury station, Exclusively.in, Luxepolis and Darveys offer luxury goods sourced from various boutiques.
Pre-owned luxury is another fast-growing phenomena adding to servicing the aspirations of small-town luxury seekers.
There is money in the smaller towns and markets, but there is no access to luxury brands.
As Indians acquire global tastes thanks to affordable foreign vacations, the influence of Hollywood and Bollywood, and the Indian diaspora, they are looking to own foreign luxury brands.
Encashing on this sentiment, online fashion retailer Myntra sells premium brands such as Desigual, New Look, Furla, Superdry, Emporio Armani, L’Occitane in its portfolio.
The most recent addition is fashion house DKNY and The North Face.
Owing to the response of premium international brands, Myntra has revised its revenue target from international brands to 15 per cent of its revenues in the next 12 months to18 months, from the current 5 percent.
Indian luxury retail trends: Tier 1 cities
The key spending on luxury products is pre-dominant in the metro cities.
In 2015, Delhi ranked first in spending most on luxury brands, followed by Mumbai (2nd), Ahmedabad (3rd), Pune (4th) and Bangalore (5th).
However, spending on luxury goods has spread much beyond and across tier 1, 2 and 3 cities.
Ranking of India’s leading luxury retail cities
Delhi National Capital Region: Has the most enriching retail legacy among the Indian cities, therefore the Northern Indian city tops all real estate drivers. Delhi, especially the National Capital Region, remains one of the strongest markets in terms of sale volumes for the manufacturers.
Mumbai: Mumbai, the nation’s financial capital on the West Coast, has the highest retail demand potential. However, a lack of availability of land parcels leading to high rents in prime areas acts as a deterrent that causes Mumbai to lag behind Delhi.
Pune: Pune in Western India provides the most affordable rents in prime areas among the Tier 1, 2 and 3 tier cities.
Bangalore: Affordable rents in the city, compared to other Tier 1 and 2 cities, have helped retail to flourish. However, the Southern Indian city has lesser household expenditure even when compared to Kolkata (formerly Calcutta) and Chennai (previously Madras).
Ahmedabad: A cash-rich city, Ahmedabad in Western India saw increased spending on premium high-end offerings from global automakers. For Italian super-luxury sports carmaker Lamborghini, cities such as Ahmedabad have put up sales figures of six units in the last six months. These figures are significant because the Volkswagen-owned brand sold 16 units in 2014 as against 22 in 2013.
Chennai: According to Ajay Agarwal, managing director of Bergamo, “Chennai-ites are mature shoppers. They are well-travelled and not afraid to pay for quality.” Chennai in South India embraced the concept of department stores much before the other metropolitan cities did. Demand for office space continues to grow for the third straight year.
Hyderabad: Hyderabad in South India offers attractiveness in terms of affordable rents, which is higher only to Pune among the Tier 2 cities. However, lesser household income and household expenditure has ranked it lower.